Phoenix Luxury Real Estate Agent Robert Joffe comments on the Cromford Report from May 15, 2013, and how the numbers fare for Phoenix area residential real estate.
Robert Joffe is a frequent real estate media expert on television, radio, and with newspapers.
For an interview please contact Keith Woods, KB Woods Public Relations at 602-475-8179, or firstname.lastname@example.org.
Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast [May 15, 2013]
For the monthly period ending May 15, sales are recording at $/SF of $117.68 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is 3.5% higher than the $113.55 we now measure for April 15. The forecast range was $115.40 to $120.11 with a mid-point of $117.75.
On May 15 REO sales across Greater Phoenix (all types) averaged $86.56 per sq. ft. (up 6.2%). Pre-foreclosures and short sales averaged $87.01 (up 2.6%) while normal sales averaged $126.56 (up 2.2%). The market share of normal sales rose again over the last 30 days, moving from 74.2% to 76.5% of sales. REOs lost market share from 11.6% to 10.7%. Short sales and pre-foreclosures continued to lose market share from 14.2% to 12.9%.
On May 16 the pending listings for all areas & types showed an average list $/SF of $113.13, 1.2% above the reading for April 16 – so pending $/SF has made another move upward over the last month, though not nearly as great as last month. Among those pending listings we have 61.7% normal, up from 60.0% last month, a lower 12.2% in REOs and a weaker 26.1% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. The average pricing for pending listings on May 16 in each category was: $130.87 normal, $79.83 short sales & pre-foreclosures and $83.30 for REOs. The latter is a lower number than last month, but the other two are higher. The favorable change in mix away from distressed properties should also cause sales prices to move higher.
The new mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on June 15 is $120.44, which is 1.24% higher than the May 16 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $118.03 to $122.85. In other words we still expect prices are move higher in the next 30 days though not to the large extent they did last month.
September 15, 2011 – measured at $78.82 per sq. ft. – remains the $/SF pricing bottom 20 months ago. The record low monthly median sales price is still standing at $107,000 and this record low point was set on February 24, 2011. Our current monthly median sales price is now $175,000 – 63.6% above that low point.
In addition, on May 18, 2013- The rapidly rising prices are not having their usual effect – bringing out a lot more supply, but they are slowly damping down demand. The **Cromford Demand Index™ is today standing at 103.7 which is the lowest since January 2009.
*Buyers: Don’t expect a surge of new inventory. The supply trend continues to tighten, while prices are still rising, albeit more modestly than we’ve seen in the past year.
*Sellers: The market is starved for well-positioned inventory. If there’s a need to sell, getting ahead of the slower mid-late-summer months may be a good idea.
**Cromford Demand Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the demand for resale homes in the market. It is derived from the trends in pending and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values above 100 indicate more demand than usual, while values below 100 indicate less demand than usual. A value of 100 indicates the demand is close to normal.